Obama and Biden Cannot Run Again
President Joe Biden plans to seek a second term in the White Firm in 2024 — or and so he says publicly.
But at age 79, with his poll numbers looking dismal, his early signals are more than a sign of weakness than conviction. No modern president has had to assure his supporters then early on in his starting time term that he'due south serious about running again.
1 reason for doubt is, he has to say it.
If Biden had said during his 2020 entrada that he'd just serve 1 term, he would have magnified concern about his personal vitality and may accept been so weakened that President Donald Trump would have beaten him. And if he were to say now that he'd serve simply four years, it would brand him an instant lame duck.
His ambitious, though badly dilapidated, legislative programs would be easy to ignore even past Democrats in Congress.
Theodore Roosevelt always maintained that the biggest error of his political life was proverb, after his 1904 election, that he wouldn't go for another term in 1908. In those days, presidents felt laurels-bound to keep their commitments and so, even though Roosevelt probably could have won if he'd come up with some alibi for changing his mind, he kept his discussion.
The 2nd Roosevelt kept even his vice president guessing in 1940, earlier deciding to run for a tertiary — and then fourth — term in the White Business firm. It kept potential successors at bay.
Merely the circumstances FDR faced don't compare to anything today.
Biden doesn't seem similar an especially ego-driven man. Only anyone with appetite enough to win so many elections to the U.S. Senate, vice presidency and White House is not inclined to bow out when another term is possible.
But is information technology possible?
No president has found it necessary to reassure friend and foe akin, in the first year of his outset term, that they might have to put up with him for eight years. Usually, a re-election bid is a safe supposition.
But usually they're not 79 and don't take their predecessor talking about a rematch.
Since FDR beat Herbert Hoover, only three presidents take been forcibly retired. Jimmy Carter and George H.West. Bush looked stiff and re-electable in their get-go years. Later on the first Gulf state of war, Bush was then strong that potential Autonomous challengers were backing away from challenging him.
Poor Biden. Everything is going against him — the economy, Donald Trump, aggrandizement, foreign diplomacy, the southwest border crunch, congressional in-fighting, his own public paradigm.
A recent CBS News poll showed his approval rating at 44% and that was up from a Quinnipiac University poll that rated Biden's favorable rating at 36%. The only area in which CBS found him to a higher place the halfway mark was in distribution of the COVID vaccine.
More often than not speaking, when the best matter you've got going for you lot is a disease, that's not good.
It's early on nevertheless and, if his infrastructure spending bears fruit in jobs and structural improvements, the epitome of the Autonomous Party could improve. If inflation cools, that volition help.
Democratic chances of maintaining a slim majority in Congress are non expert, even so.
The previous two Democratic presidents, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, were in moderate trouble — zip like Biden's current woes — but survived re-ballot handily. Trump was what lawyers call sui generis, not comparable to anything America has always seen.
The president got an encouraging report from his almanac concrete examination final week. But the lingering perception that he's non quite upward to the chore will be actively promoted by his critics, and there'due south not much Biden tin do to counter it.
News reports out of Washington indicate Democrats are getting very nervous about Vice President Kamala Harris, whose poll numbers are even worse than the president'south. If she's the nominee in 2024, chances of keeping the White House volition dim considerably.
But she would be the instant front end runner if Biden bows out, just as Vice President Hubert Humphrey inherited the party's nomination when Lyndon Johnson pulled out in 1968. Once more, political weather on the basis were vastly different then merely the final result would likely be the same — a Republican winning the White House.
Beak Cotterell is a retired Tallahassee Democrat capitol reporter.
Source: https://www.gainesville.com/story/opinion/2021/11/26/bill-cotterell-joe-biden-run-again-2024-wont-easy/8732676002/
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